What to trade around Germany Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash news event

Based on the last 12 Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash events in Germany, we expect NZDUSD to trend downwards right now. Based on these past events there is a 83.33% chance of this. We expect NZDUSD to trend downwards for the next 2 hours because the released value is > 48. A price movement of 12 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

23 Jun 07:30
21 Feb 08:30
24 Jan 08:30
22 Nov 08:30
22 Aug 07:30