Based on the last 12 Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash events in Germany, we expect EURUSD to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 66.67% chance of this. We expect EURUSD to trend downwards 12 hours following the event release at 24 Mar 19:30 if the released value is > 60.8. A price movement of 52 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

19 Feb 19:30	16 Dec 19:30
23 Nov 19:30	23 Sep 17:30
21 Aug 17:30	24 Mar 19:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).