Based on the last 12 Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash events in Germany, we expect AUDUSD to trend upwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 80% chance of this. We expect AUDUSD to trend upwards 2 hours following the event release at 23 Jul 17:30 if the released value is > 64.2. A price movement of 32 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

23 Jun 17:30	24 Mar 19:30
19 Feb 19:30	16 Dec 19:30
23 Nov 19:30	23 Oct 18:30
23 Sep 17:30	24 Jul 17:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).