What to trade around Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index news event

Based on the last 12 ZEW Economic Sentiment Index events in Germany, we expect EURUSD to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 75% chance of this. We expect EURUSD to trend downwards 4 hours following the event release at 21 Jan 21:00 if the released value is > 15. A price movement of 17 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

12 Nov 21:00
15 Oct 20:00
16 Apr 19:00
19 Mar 21:00
19 Feb 21:00
22 Jan 21:00