Based on the last 12 ZEW Economic Sentiment Index events in Germany, we expect AUDUSD to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 75% chance of this. We expect AUDUSD to trend downwards 4 hours following the event release at 18 Feb 21:00 if the released value is > 21.5. A price movement of 12 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

10 Dec 21:00

15 Oct 20:00

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).