What to trade around Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index news event

Based on the last 12 ZEW Economic Sentiment Index events in Germany, we expect NZDUSD to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 75% chance of this. We expect NZDUSD to trend downwards 48 hours following the event release at 14 Jul 19:00 if the released value is < 60. A price movement of 312 pips is expected. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

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All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).