Based on the last 12 GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv events in Italy, we expect EURUSD to trend downwards right now. Based on these past events there is a 80% chance of this. We expect EURUSD to trend downwards for the next 12 hours because the released value is > 0.5%. A price movement of 109 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

29 Oct 19:00	30 Jul 18:00
30 Apr 18:00	02 Feb 20:00
30 Oct 20:00	31 Jul 18:00
31 Oct 22:00	31 Jul 20:00

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).