Based on the last 12 Balance of Trade events in Japan, we expect USDCHF to trend upwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 66.67% chance of this. We expect USDCHF to trend upwards 48 hours following the event release at 21 May 09:50 if the released value is < ¥-560B. A price movement of 41 pips is expected. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

20 Apr 09:50	23 Jan 10:50
20 Nov 10:50	21 Oct 10:50

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).