Based on past Japan Balance of Trade news events there is a 66.67% chance of AUDUSD trending upwards. We expect this to happen because the released value is > ¥ -1800B. A price movement of 100 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

21 Jul 09:50

19 May 09:50

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).