What to trade around Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision news event

Based on the last 12 BoJ Interest Rate Decision events in Japan, we expect GBPUSD to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 66.67% chance of this. We expect GBPUSD to trend downwards 2 hours following the event release at 22 May 03:00 if the released value is = -0.1%. A price movement of 47 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

16 Mar 05:00
19 Dec 03:00
31 Oct 04:00
30 Jul 03:00
20 Jun 03:00
25 Apr 03:00
15 Mar 03:00
23 Jan 03:00