Based on the last 12 Consumer Confidence events in Japan, we expect EURUSD to trend downwards right now. Based on these past events there is a 75% chance of this. We expect EURUSD to trend downwards for the next 12 hours because the released value is > 29. A price movement of 48 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

31 Jul 15:00	08 Jan 16:00
31 Oct 16:00

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).