What to trade around Japan Consumer Confidence news event

Based on the last 12 Consumer Confidence events in Japan, we expect GBPUSD to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 75% chance of this. We expect GBPUSD to trend downwards 2 hours following the event release at 03 Mar 05:00 if the released value is < 40.6. A price movement of 23 pips is expected. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

02 Oct 05:00
29 Aug 05:00
01 Jul 05:00
31 May 05:00
08 Apr 05:00
01 Mar 05:00