Based on the last 12 Inflation Rate YoY events in Japan, we expect GBPUSD to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 75% chance of this. We expect GBPUSD to trend downwards 48 hours following the event release at 18 Sep 09:30 if the released value is > 0.1%. A price movement of 139 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

21 Aug 09:30	24 Jan 10:30
20 Dec 10:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).