What to trade around Japan Inflation Rate YoY news event

Based on the last 12 Inflation Rate YoY events in Japan, we expect NZDUSD to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 66.67% chance of this. We expect NZDUSD to trend downwards 2 hours following the event release at 19 Jul 23:30 if the released value is < 0%. A price movement of 10 pips is expected. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

20 May 23:30
21 Jan 23:30
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22 Oct 23:30