Based on the last 12 Unemployment Rate events in Japan, we expect USDCAD to trend upwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 80% chance of this. We expect USDCAD to trend upwards 2 hours following the event release at 29 May 09:30 if the released value is = 2.7%. A price movement of 27 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

28 Apr 09:30	31 Mar 10:30
29 Nov 10:30	31 May 09:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).