Based on the last 12 Balance of Trade events in United Kingdom, we expect USDJPY to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 75% chance of this. We expect USDJPY to trend downwards 2 hours following the event release at 14 Jul 16:00 if the released value is > £-0.8B. A price movement of 39 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

12 Jun 16:00	11 Mar 20:30
11 Feb 20:30	10 Oct 19:30
09 Aug 18:30	10 Jul 18:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).