What to trade around United Kingdom Balance of Trade news event

Based on the last 12 Balance of Trade events in United Kingdom, we expect USDJPY to trend upwards right now. Based on these past events there is a 80% chance of this. We expect USDJPY to trend upwards for the next 2 hours because the released value is > £-3.2B. A price movement of 21 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

11 Nov 07:00
09 Jul 11:00
11 Jun 06:00
12 Mar 07:00