What to trade around United Kingdom Claimant Count Change news event

Based on the last 12 Claimant Count Change events in United Kingdom, we expect EURUSD to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 66.67% chance of this. We expect EURUSD to trend downwards 4 hours following the event release at 21 Jan 20:30 if the released value is < 24.5K. A price movement of 23 pips is expected. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

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10 Sep 18:30