Based on the last 12 Claimant Count Change events in United Kingdom, we expect GBPUSD to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 75% chance of this. We expect GBPUSD to trend downwards 4 hours following the event release at 11 Aug 16:00 if the released value is < 10K. A price movement of 31 pips is expected. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

16 Jul 16:00	21 Apr 16:00
17 Mar 20:30	15 Oct 19:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).