What to trade around United Kingdom Claimant Count Change news event

Based on the last 12 Claimant Count Change events in United Kingdom, we expect EURUSD to trend downwards right now. Based on these past events there is a 71.43% chance of this. We expect EURUSD to trend downwards for the next 12 hours because the released value is < 78.8K. A price movement of 50 pips is expected. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

15 Sep 16:00
16 Jul 16:00
17 Mar 20:30
18 Feb 20:30
21 Jan 20:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).