What to trade around United Kingdom GfK Consumer Confidence news event

Based on the last 12 GfK Consumer Confidence events in United Kingdom, we expect AUDUSD to trend downwards right now. Based on these past events there is a 66.67% chance of this. We expect AUDUSD to trend downwards for the next 2 hours because the released value is > -15. A price movement of 23 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

28 Feb 11:01
31 Jul 09:01
31 May 09:01
29 Mar 11:01

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).