What to trade around United States Adp Employment Change news event

Based on the last 12 Adp Employment Change events in United States, we expect NZDUSD to trend downwards right now. Based on these past events there is a 66.67% chance of this. We expect NZDUSD to trend downwards for the next 48 hours because the released value is > 400K. A price movement of 65 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

02 Dec 00:15
03 Nov 23:15
30 Jun 22:15
04 Feb 00:15

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).