What to trade around United States Adp Employment Change news event

Based on the last 12 Adp Employment Change events in United States, we expect NZDUSD to trend upwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 75% chance of this. We expect NZDUSD to trend upwards 12 hours following the event release at 06 May 22:15 if the released value is < -20000K. A price movement of 30 pips is expected. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

05 Dec 00:15
02 Oct 22:15
03 Jul 22:15

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).