Based on the last 12 Balance of Trade events in United States, we expect GBPUSD to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 66.67% chance of this. We expect GBPUSD to trend downwards 48 hours following the event release at 05 May 22:30 if the released value is < $-44B. A price movement of 83 pips is expected. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

06 Feb 00:30	04 Oct 22:30
03 Jul 22:30	06 Jun 22:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).