What to trade around United States Continuing Jobless Claims news event

Based on the last 12 Continuing Jobless Claims events in United States, we expect NZDUSD to trend upwards right now. Based on these past events there is a 71.43% chance of this. We expect NZDUSD to trend upwards for the next 2 hours because the released value is < 5061K. A price movement of 23 pips is expected. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

01 Jan 00:30
24 Dec 00:30
04 Dec 00:30
20 Nov 00:30
13 Nov 00:30
22 Oct 23:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).