What to trade around United States Continuing Jobless Claims news event

Based on the last 12 Continuing Jobless Claims events in United States, we expect NZDUSD to trend upwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 66.67% chance of this. We expect NZDUSD to trend upwards 2 hours following the event release at 28 Jan 13:30 if the released value is < 5054K. A price movement of 23 pips is expected. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

14 Jan 13:30
31 Dec 13:30
23 Dec 13:30
03 Dec 13:30
19 Nov 13:30
12 Nov 13:30