What to trade around United States Continuing Jobless Claims news event

Based on the last 12 Continuing Jobless Claims events in United States, we expect NZDUSD to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 71.43% chance of this. We expect NZDUSD to trend downwards 2 hours following the event release at 22 Jul 12:30 if the released value is > 3100K. A price movement of 32 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

01 Jul 12:30
17 Jun 12:30
03 Jun 12:30
06 May 12:30
29 Apr 12:30