What to trade around United States Continuing Jobless Claims news event

Based on the last 12 Continuing Jobless Claims events in United States, we expect GBPUSD to trend upwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 80% chance of this. We expect GBPUSD to trend upwards 2 hours following the event release at 12 Aug 12:30 if the released value is < 2880K. A price movement of 50 pips is expected. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

05 Aug 12:30
24 Jun 12:30
10 Jun 12:30
27 May 12:30