What to trade around United States Continuing Jobless Claims news event

Based on the last 12 Continuing Jobless Claims events in United States, we could expect AUDUSD to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 80% chance of this. We expect AUDUSD to trend downwards 2 hours following the event release at 23 Jun 12:30 if the released value is > 1315K. A price movement of 42 pips could result.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

09 Jun 12:30
28 Apr 12:30
07 Apr 12:30