What to trade around United States Continuing Jobless Claims news event

Based on past United States Continuing Jobless Claims news events there is a 66.67% chance of GBPUSD trending upwards. We expect this to happen because the released value is > 1400K. A price movement of 37 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

11 Aug 12:30
04 Aug 12:30
07 Jul 12:30
30 Jun 12:30