What to trade around United States Durable Goods Orders MoM news event

Based on the last 12 Durable Goods Orders MoM events in United States, we expect NZDUSD to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 80% chance of this. We expect NZDUSD to trend downwards 48 hours following the event release at 2022-08-24 22:30 if the released value is < 0.6%. A price movement of 152 pips is expected. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

26 Apr 22:30
24 Mar 23:30
28 Jan 00:30
25 Nov 00:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).