What to trade around United States Durable Goods Orders MoM news event

Based on the last 12 Durable Goods Orders MoM events in United States, we expect USDCHF to trend upwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 75% chance of this. We expect USDCHF to trend upwards 2 hours following the event release at 26 Apr 12:30 if the released value is < 2.5%. A price movement of 20 pips is expected. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

24 Mar 12:30
27 Jan 13:30
25 Sep 12:30