Based on the last 12 Fed Interest Rate Decision events in United States, we expect USDJPY to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 83.33% chance of this. We expect USDJPY to trend downwards 12 hours following the event release at 19 Mar 05:00 if the released value is = 0.5%. A price movement of 67 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

30 Jan 06:00	12 Dec 06:00
31 Oct 05:00	19 Sep 04:00
20 Jun 04:00	21 Mar 05:00
31 Jan 06:00	20 Dec 06:00
09 Nov 06:00	27 Sep 04:00

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).