What to trade around United States Housing Starts news event

Based on the last 12 Housing Starts events in United States, we expect AUDUSD to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 66.67% chance of this. We expect AUDUSD to trend downwards 2 hours following the event release at 19 Apr 12:30 if the released value is > 1.745M. A price movement of 22 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

16 Dec 13:30
21 Sep 12:30
20 Jul 12:30
16 Apr 12:30