Based on the last 12 Housing Starts events in United States, we expect USDJPY to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 66.67% chance of this. We expect USDJPY to trend downwards 12 hours following the event release at 20 Jul 22:30 if the released value is > 1.59M. A price movement of 22 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

16 Apr 22:30	19 Nov 00:30
18 Aug 22:30	17 Jul 22:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).