What to trade around United States Housing Starts news event

Based on the last 12 Housing Starts events in United States, we expect NZDUSD to trend downwards right now. Based on these past events there is a 80% chance of this. We expect NZDUSD to trend downwards for the next 2 hours because the released value is > 1.568M. A price movement of 27 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

21 Sep 12:30
16 Apr 12:30
21 Jan 13:30
17 Dec 13:30