Based on the last 12 Inflation Rate YoY events in United States, we expect USDCAD to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 71.43% chance of this. We expect USDCAD to trend downwards 2 hours following the event release at 11 Feb 00:30 if the released value is > 7.3%. A price movement of 46 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

11 Nov 00:30	13 Oct 23:30
10 Jun 22:30	12 May 22:30
13 Apr 22:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).