What to trade around United States ISM Manufacturing PMI news event

Based on the last 12 ISM Manufacturing PMI events in United States, we expect GBPUSD to trend upwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 75% chance of this. We expect GBPUSD to trend upwards 2 hours following the event release at 03 May 14:00 if the released value is < 65. A price movement of 43 pips is expected. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

01 Dec 15:00
01 Oct 14:00
01 Jun 14:00