What to trade around United States Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel news event

Based on the last 12 Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel events in United States, we expect USDJPY to trend downwards right now. Based on these past events there is a 77.78% chance of this. We expect USDJPY to trend downwards for the next 2 hours because the released value is < 67.5. A price movement of 32 pips is expected. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

13 Nov 02:00
16 Oct 01:00
18 Sep 00:00
14 Aug 00:00
17 Jul 00:00
17 Apr 00:00
13 Feb 02:00

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).