What to trade around United States Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel news event

Based on the last 12 Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel events in United States, we expect HG to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 70% chance of this. We expect HG to trend downwards 2 hours following the event release at 14 Apr 14:00 if the released value is < 59. A price movement of 4 pips is expected. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

11 Feb 15:00
14 Jan 15:00
15 Oct 14:00
17 Sep 14:00
16 Jul 14:00
14 May 14:00
16 Apr 14:00