What to trade around United States Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel news event

Based on the last 12 Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel events in United States, we expect AUDUSD to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 83.33% chance of this. We expect AUDUSD to trend downwards 2 hours following the event release at 13 Mar 14:00 if the released value is < 95. A price movement of 20 pips is expected. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

17 Jan 15:30
08 Nov 15:00
19 Jul 14:00
14 Jun 14:00
12 Apr 14:00