What to trade around United States New Home Sales news event

Based on the last 12 New Home Sales events in United States, we expect EURUSD to trend downwards right now. Based on these past events there is a 87.5% chance of this. We expect EURUSD to trend downwards for the next 48 hours because the released value is > 0.71M. A price movement of 94 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

27 Nov 02:00
25 Oct 01:00
26 Sep 00:00
25 Jul 00:00
24 Apr 00:00
30 Mar 01:00

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).