Based on the last 12 Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index events in United States, we expect EURUSD to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 87.5% chance of this. We expect EURUSD to trend downwards 48 hours following the event release at 19 Mar 23:30 if the released value is > 10. A price movement of 82 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

17 Jan 00:30	22 Nov 00:30
19 Sep 22:30	15 Aug 22:30
18 Jul 22:30	16 May 22:30
21 Mar 23:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).