Based on the last 12 Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index events in United States, we expect AUDUSD to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 85.71% chance of this. We expect AUDUSD to trend downwards 12 hours following the event release at 21 May 22:30 if the released value is > -41.5. A price movement of 33 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

21 Feb 00:30	17 Jan 00:30
22 Nov 00:30	19 Sep 22:30
15 Aug 22:30	16 May 22:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).