What to trade around United States Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index news event

Based on the last 12 Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index events in United States, we expect AUDUSD to trend upwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 66.67% chance of this. We expect AUDUSD to trend upwards 2 hours following the event release at 18 Jun 12:30 if the released value is > -23. A price movement of 9 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

20 Feb 13:30
19 Sep 12:30
15 Aug 12:30
18 Jul 12:30