What to trade around United States Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index news event

Based on the last 12 Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index events in United States, we expect NZDUSD to trend upwards right now. Based on these past events there is a 66.67% chance of this. We expect NZDUSD to trend upwards for the next 2 hours because the released value is > -23. A price movement of 18 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

20 Feb 13:30
19 Sep 12:30
15 Aug 12:30
18 Jul 12:30