What to trade around United States Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index news event

Based on the last 12 Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index events in United States, we expect NZDUSD to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 66.67% chance of this. We expect NZDUSD to trend downwards 2 hours following the event release at 19 Aug 12:30 if the released value is > 23. A price movement of 36 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

18 Mar 12:30
18 Feb 13:30
21 Jan 13:30
15 Oct 12:30