Based on the last 12 Retail Sales MoM events in United States, we expect USDCAD to trend upwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 75% chance of this. We expect USDCAD to trend upwards 2 hours following the event release at 17 Aug 22:30 if the released value is > -0.3%. A price movement of 38 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

16 Jul 22:30	15 Apr 22:30
18 Feb 00:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).