Based on the last 12 Retail Sales MoM events in United States, we expect AUDUSD to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 71.43% chance of this. We expect AUDUSD to trend downwards 2 hours following the event release at 15 Oct 23:30 if the released value is < -0.2%. A price movement of 45 pips is expected. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

17 Aug 22:30	15 Jun 22:30
16 Jan 00:30	17 Dec 00:30
18 Nov 00:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).