Based on the last 12 Retail Sales MoM events in United States, we expect NZDUSD to trend upwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 66.67% chance of this. We expect NZDUSD to trend upwards 48 hours following the event release at 16 Mar 23:30 if the released value is > 0.4%. A price movement of 99 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

17 Feb 00:30	17 Nov 00:30
15 Oct 23:30	15 Apr 22:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).